Summoning the Courage to Redefine Forecasting: Upending the Apple Cart

"We have too many planners. And even if we can afford the costs, we don't get good answers with our current forecasting processes," stated the supply chain leader on the phone. "I want to build outside-in processes, but I don't know what this looks like. Can you tell me what you mean by this statement?" My question to her was "Do you have the courage to upend the apple cart?" The essence of this discussion is shared in this post.

Summoning the Courage to Redefine Forecasting: Upending the Apple Cart

About econometrics, statistics and data science: the great divide in forecasting.

I attended and was priviliged to speak at the International Symposium of Forecasting (ISF), May 20-22nd in Santander, Spain. As a supply chain person, with a strong interest in forecasting, I was curious to get a deeper understanding of where the academics are and where they are heading. A main conclusion I took home was that there seems a great divide between 3 groups: the econometrists, the statisticians, and the data scientists.

About econometrics, statistics and data science: the great divide in forecasting.

Christmas is coming! (again...)

Well here we are, into the second week of 2016. Christmas but a memory already and those New Year resolutions you swore you’d stick to look like a worse idea each day…

It’s also the time when some will need to start looking at how they’re going to manage this year’s Christmas period in their business, especially those involved in consumer goods which see a surge in demand as we hit the last quarter. Perhaps it went so badly in 2015 that it’s more a post mortem than a forward planning discussion!

Christmas is coming! (again...)
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The True Cost of a Long Tail

Long product tails are good for digital businesses with minimal inventory costs, but represent a major financial commitment for make-to-stock manufacturers. A long tail severely impacts business performance – hurting forecast accuracy and forecast value-added, driving a lot of bias and inventory, hurting productivity, increasing obsolescence, and impacting S&OP. These all eventually have real financial impacts on your company. So just how long is the long tail for consumer goods? Well, it’s a lot longer than you might think.

The True Cost of a Long Tail

2015 in Review: Businesses Prepare for Growth in the Next Few Years

At John Galt Solutions, we noticed a major trend in 2015 with our customers:  a marked increase in confidence that their businesses will grow healthily over the next 1-3 years. This expectation subsequently beget other major strategic and tactical initiatives for our customers.

To prepare for growth they needed to refine their processes and ensure they had the right technology solutions in place to support those processes. In particular, many companies are maturing in their sales and operations planning (S&OP).

2015 in Review: Businesses Prepare for Growth in the Next Few Years

Better Inventory through Better Forecasting? Probably Not.

Writing recently at Forbes.com, Lora Cecere gave the supply chain management community a penetrating article on the connection (or, lack of connection) between efforts to improve forecasting and results found in better inventory. The article was entitled, “Does Better Forecasting Improve Inventory? Why I Don’t Think So Anymore.” [*]

While the whole article is certainly worth your consideration, I would like to call specific attention to some areas that I consider critical—and too frequently overlooked.

Better Inventory through Better Forecasting? Probably Not.
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Next Generation Forecasting (Is Closer Than You Think)

Next-generation Forecasting is Closer than you Might Think

Surrounded by an explosion of data, most forecasting systems have no way to leverage or take advantage of it. Businesses complexity is growing, driven by multi-channel marketing, the growing influence of Demand Shaping (Media, Promotions, NPI), and the impact of the internet on buying behavior - to name a few. This white paper provides information on how to manage and ultimately profit from this complex challenge.

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